Weather - Forecast

Jul 10, 2013 8:15 AM by Stephen Bowers

Cooler today with scattered thunderstorms

"Scattered" is the keyword for today's chance for rain. Showers and thunderstorms will be scattered around Southern Colorado. Those of us who see the rain could see heavy rain and even some hail and gusty winds. There will be some areas, however, that will miss the rain. There are more elements working in our favor today. Moisture is in place, not only at the lowest layer of the atmosphere, but moisture is also present aloft. We need something to force that moisture to rise. Today, we have three things to help contribute to rising motion in the atmosphere: a cold front, an upslope wind flow south of high pressure building behind the cold front, and a weak mid-level disturbance. That means the odds that you will see rain are higher today than in recent days, but again some areas will miss the rain. The cold front will actually provide enough lift this evening that some of the showers and thunderstorms will reach out into the Southeastern Plains before they die off tonight. With that additional rising motion and warm temperatures, severe thunderstorms are possible from the mountains east to Kansas. Primary threats closer to the mountains and I-25 will be wind and hail, but a tornado or two is possible in the Southeastern Plains.

Temperature-wise, we will be cooler than yesterday. "Cooler" is relative, though, and today will still be quite warm with middle and upper 80's on the Palmer Divide, including Colorado Springs, and lower and middle 90's along and south of the Arkansas River Valley.

Fire risk could also increase as temperatures warm along and south of the Arkansas River this afternoon. The fire risk was a bit higher, though it was still below the Red Flag Warning threshold, and a fire did, in fact, ignite on Fishers Peak near Trinidad. The fire risk will be similarly elevated today before any rain can develop.

After today, a chance for rain is in the forecast each afternoon for the next seven days. The chance for rain is higher on some days than on others. Most days will see only isolated afternoon thunderstorms at best, while a few days could see more widespread showers and thunderstorm activity. Temperatures will stay warm but will begin cooling slightly beginning Sunday.

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