Weather - Forecast

Jun 7, 2014 11:14 PM by John Dissauer

Potentially Wet Weekend

9:10pm Update:  As expected, a few showers and thunderstorms have recently developed across El Paso County.  As of this update the storm is moving to the ENE.  It wouldn't be out of the question for a little hail to fall out of a storm or two.  Also, gusty winds could shoot out of the storm, especially if they quickly fizzle.

4:15pm Update:  Showers and thunderstorms are moving east across southern and southeastern Colorado.  For the most part, the storms have been "behaving" (staying below severe criteria).  There were some reports of golf ball size hail around Westcliffe earlier this afternoon.  The main threat from the storms the rest of the afternoon and going in to the evening will be brief, gusty winds, dangerous lightning, hail and brief, heavy downpours.

I am going to keep a chance of rain in the forecast through the overnight hours.  The rain will not be widespread, but instead very isolated. - Meteorologist John Dissauer

Original Post at 8:50am: Dodging showers and thunderstorms will be the weather-game played this weekend.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Eastern Mountains around noon.  These thunderstorms will move east and over the I-25 corridor starting early afternoon.  Eventually, they will reach the southeastern Plains of Colorado.

Some of the thunderstorms will have the ability to produce large hail, damaging wind, heavy downpours and dangerous lightning.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of southern Colorado in a "Slight Risk" area highlighted for severe thunderstorm until 6am MT Sunday. (See image at top of story.)

Eyes will be on thunderstorms that pass over area burn scars this afternoon as they could have the potential to produce flooding rains.

Looking at new, experimental computer model data and it suggests peak lightning times for the various locations*...

  • Colorado Springs: 1:00pm - 7:00pm
  • La Junta: 2:00pm - 10:00pm
  • Lamar: 5:00pm - 11:00pm
  • Pueblo: 4:00pm - 8:00pm
  • Trinidad: 12:00pm - 9:00pm

*Not all cities in southern Colorado are listed due to lack of data available from the computer model.


Another period of shower and thunderstorm development will be possible Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night.  These storms will have the potential of producing hail, gusty winds, lightning and heavy downpours.  Much like Saturday, eyes will be paying close attention to thunderstorms that move over area burn scars for the potential of flash flooding.


Computer models are rather aggressive with projected rainfall totals for the weekend.  Computing a 26-computer model average suggests 0.93" of rain for Colorado Springs and 0.75" for Pueblo through 6am Tuesday, with the majority of the rain falling through Sunday night.  Comparing that to what the two cities should normally see for the same time period... Computer model projections are suggesting 258% the normal for Colorado Springs and 417% for Pueblo.  - Meteorologist John Dissauer


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