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May 8, 2014 5:50 PM by John Dissauer

The Loooooong Ranger: May 10 - June 4

I like to look through some of the long range weather computer model data and see what the data suggests.  New data is in and thought I'd give you some of my take-aways from the data.

One thing to remember, you should take all of the thoughts with a MAJOR grain of salt.  This is only an experiemental computer model and not reality.  You should not get too hung up on details just yet.  Things can and likely will change.

Enough with the disclaimer, on to my observations:

  • Upper-level low develops in the northern Plains May 12.
    • Brings cooler temperatures to Colorado.
    • Brings severe weather to central/southern Plains May 12.
    • Brings severe weather to Missouri, Arkansas and Illinois May 13.
  • Upper-level storm moves from Great Lakes to southeast United States May 16.
  • Cool and weather weather in the Carolinas through May 23.
  • Warm-up in Colorado May 17-22.
  • Pacific storm develops off west coast United States May 21.  Moves onshore May 24.
  • Warm-up in central United States May 24-28.
  • Warm-up in southeastern United States May 26-30.
  • Warm-up in Colorado/New Mexico June 1-4.

Keep in mind, the model is just that. A computer model. The farther out the model looks, the higher the possible error rate. The key to look at this kind of data is not to look at specifics but instead trends and long wave patterns.

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