Jul 16, 2014 8:20 AM by Stephen Bowers
To our north is weak mid-level low pressure area that will help to further enhance storms this afternoon and increase the coverage of our rain. Like yesterday this comes with the severe weather risk, especially over our Southeastern Plains where damaging wind and large hail will come from the stronger storms.
Cloud cover played a huge part in yesterday's high temperatures, that didn't get anywhere near any forecast highs. This afternoon, I suspect the cloud cover will be a big player again. While most computer models are suggesting highs in the 70's and 80's, I am not convinced the clouds will break so the sun can make that warming happen. For my forecast I have gone a little cooler than model guidance, but know that if the sun is able to break out from behind the clouds our temperatures could be significantly warmer. Today's other big player is more rain. Like yesterday risk for flash flooding is elevated, and a few severe thunderstorms with damaging wind or hail can't be ruled out.
Fog accompanied low cloud cover and spotty showers early this morning. Our StormCast does indicate clouds breaking through 10 AM. StormCast indicated the same thing yesterday, and with abundant moisture above the ground and plenty of the needed rising motion to generate clouds and rain I am having some difficulty believing the clouds will break enough to allow for the fast warming shown by StormCast. IF the clouds can break, areas along and south of the Arkansas Valley will be able to warm into the 80's. Otherwise, expect 70's for highs with areas of rain beginning between 10 AM and noon in the mountains and spreading toward I-25 by 2 PM and into the Plains through 5 PM.
When does the rain end? Some of us start a break as early as tomorrow. Some showers will still be around, but the coverage will be less. By Friday, we will be left with only a spotty afternoon shower or two. A similar pattern sets up on Saturday. A cold front will move through on Saturday. There isn't much cool air behind that cold front, but it will help to dry out the atmosphere so that temperatures fluctuate faster and the showers take a break. Temperatures will steadily warm after Thursday. By Sunday July's typical 90's and 100's make their return.